Federal Workforce Attrition Rates: Past Trends and Impact of the New Administration

There are a lot of burning questions surrounding the buyout Trump offered to the federal workforce, like: how many employees will accept, or will we see major dips in retention? While there’s still more change to come, let’s focus on what we’ve seen with federal workforce attrition rates in the past, and what it looks like so far under the Trump Administration.

The Trump Administration’s Buyout Offer

First, we’ll dive into the very thing that sparked the attrition discussion in the first place. In late January, the Trump Administration sent a buyout offer to the entire federal workforce, nicknamed the “Fork in the Road.” This offer mentions 8 months of pay and benefits through September for all federal employees who resign. Now that the deadline has passed, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) confirmed about 77,000 employees took this offer, totaling about 3.3% of the 2.3 million workers within the federal government. Right now, this number falls below the White House’s target projection of reaching 5% to 10% attrition with the buyout.

Past Federal Workforce Attrition Rate Trends: 2019-2024

When looking at the 77,000 federal workers leaving due to the recent buyout offer, it’s important to put the number into perspective. Just over two years ago, former President Biden signed a moderate in-office work mandate, which caused several senior and skilled employees to leave. About 150,000 employees left the government that year—70,000 retired and 77,000 quit. This led to about a 7.6% attrition rate, the highest we have seen in over 5 years.

On average, the federal government has an attrition rate of 6%, but it hovers generally in the 5% to 7% range (it was about 5.9% in 2023). It’s estimated that about 100,000 to 150,000 employees leave each year, whether it’s for retirement or personal reasons. This number can of course be impacted by Voluntary Early Retirement Authority, Voluntary Separation Incentive Pay, as well as Biden’s mandate and Trump’s buyout. It’s important to note, however, that the federal workforce has steadily grown in the past few years, and things could be different this year under the Trump Administration.

How the Trump Administration’s Buyout Offer Could Impact the Federal Workforce

With the current buyout, we can expect a good portion of these attrition percentages to be made up of senior management based on past trends from Biden’s mandate. This is most likely because they were close to retirement, or could easily take their skills somewhere else.

There are several experts warning that this buyout, while potentially accomplishing budget goals, could lead to large skill gaps in the government. Paired with the 90-day hiring freeze, there may be some rapid hiring once it’s lifted to backfill the upper management positions.

This is where contract vehicles such as the Multiple Award Schedule (MAS) program come in. The federal government will need to quickly and efficiently hire employees in certain critical areas such as cybersecurity, defense, facilities, and training. To accomplish this, they’ll turn to vehicles that have pre-vetted contractors and pre-negotiated pricing to acquire professional services, whether it’s for talent recruitment/staffing, or to fill the gaps of positions for training, cybersecurity, etc. If you are a GSA Schedule contractor, or plan to become one, this could be an opportunity for you. 

Understanding the Shifting Federal Landscape

Contract maintenance and marketing can be a big job in itself, but when you add a new administration, the changes can be a lot to keep up with. It’s crucial at this time that you are following the new administration’s actions to understand how they may impact you, and strategically shift your contract strategy to match their mission. Especially if you offer professional services, you should be targeting those agencies who will need to replace critical personnel. If you want to learn more about what the Trump Administration has been up to and how you can maximize your contract, check out our blogs:

• Top 10 Things Federal Contractors Should Do During a New Presidential Administration
• Key Executive Orders and their Implications for Federal Contractors
• How the New Trump Administration Could Impact the GSA Multiple Award Schedule (MAS) Program

To see more blogs like this, subscribe to our weekly blog email. You can also join our monthly govcon newsletter. If you have questions about your GSA Schedule, or need help managing it, contact one of our consultants today.